Covid-19: Mass testing - KEY to End the Lockdown?

As a dual British-Taiwanese passport holder with a PhD from the London School of Economics, he has no political agenda to promote or praise China—he’s simply sharing the reality he witnessed during his family outing.

Many of my Chinese friends have also started domestic travel and are posting pictures on Instagram (using VPN, of course).

In summary...

Singapore is definitely between STAGE 1 and 2 (unfortunately).

New York City is likely in STAGE 3 but at risk of a second wave when the economy reopens and complacency sets in. In contrast, the rest of the USA is probably in STAGE 2.

Most European countries are between STAGE 2 and 3, depending on how effectively they are implementing measures.

C) POLITICIZING THE PANDEMIC DOESN’T SOLVE THE PROBLEM

What puzzles me is why Western media isn’t reporting that China has entered a "back-to-normal" stage.

Instead, much of the Western media, particularly in the USA, focuses on the blame game: "If China hadn’t covered up, we wouldn’t be where we are now"—as if blaming others, rather than taking responsibility and action, will solve anything.

New York City Governor Andrew Cuomo is likely one of the few politicians who makes sense. Below is a snapshot of his coronavirus briefing on May 4, 2020.

While the USA is fixated on China, it overlooked flights from Europe, where infection rates were already rising—this turned out to be a fatal blind spot.

Full live briefing [4 May 2020] 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwEldF5Me9Q

The heat map of infections in the USA aligns with the explanation given by CDC Principal Deputy Director Anne Schuchat,

 “The extensive travel from Europe, once Europe was having outbreaks, really accelerated our importations and the rapid spread… I think the timing of our travel alerts should have been earlier.”

D) TESTING METHODOLOGY

There are four main types of testing, each with its pros and cons (to be discussed in the next article):

• PCR: More accurate but slower and more expensive.
• ELISA: Still evaluating its advantages.
• Rapid Antibody: Results in 10-15 minutes, testing for IgG & IgM antibodies, but less accurate before Day 5 of infection.
• Antigen: Still in the development phase.

At this point, rapid antibody testing seems the most suitable for mass testing due to its cost-effectiveness and speed.

E) VACCINATION VERSUS TESTING

Given the choice between regular testing and vaccination, I’d choose the former every time.

Here are a few reasons why I prefer regular testing over vaccination:

• Vaccines typically take 12-18 months to develop and up to 5 years to be verified for safety.
• The medical substance is injected into the body and enters the bloodstream, making it irreversible.
• Side effects may not be known until years later, by which time it could be too late.

F) WHY MASS TESTING?

In summary, there are three "DARKNESSES" we are facing, and only mass testing can help bring us out of them:

1. EMOTIONAL & PHYSIOLOGICAL "DARKNESS" – FEAR

Even after shopping malls, cinemas, and borders reopen, how many people will dare to visit these places or travel?

How do we know if the person next to us on public transport is infected?

How can we ensure the safety of frontline healthcare workers and essential service workers?

For those unable to work from home, will they ever feel safe serving customers at restaurants or working in factories?

The government cannot expect people to simply return to work, operating at full capacity, without addressing the fear factor.

2. SCIENTIFIC "DARKNESS"

We know asymptomatic people can be contagious, but how do we identify them?

Contact tracing becomes increasingly difficult as cases rise.

Without testing, we can’t identify asymptomatic carriers, and the second wave could hit us like a tsunami, forcing us back into lockdown before we know it.

3. ECONOMIC "DARKNESS" – UNEMPLOYMENT, BANKRUPTCY, ETC.

Singapore, in particular, has been badly hit.

Bain Consulting's SITREP model places the global economy at Level 7, with Level 10 being the worst. Without action to reopen, it could reach Level 9 or 10 in a few months.

Source: https://www.bain.com/insights/back-to-work-how-to-limit-risks-and-keep-workers-safe-interactive/

The economy must eventually reopen, but protective measures and a well-executed action plan are essential.

G) Food for Thought & Key Takeaways

• What stage is your country in now?
• What steps are being taken to emerge from the “darkness”?
• How severely has your economy been impacted?
• Would you accept a vaccine if available? Why?
• Is your leader avoiding responsibility? History shows that evading reality never solves problems.
• Are your leaders procrastinating, or taking active steps to address the situation?
• Do you have access to testing? Is mass testing being considered?
• What do you believe is the safest way to reopen the economy?
• Does your job allow remote work? What about those in occupations that don’t offer this option (e.g., waiters, cleaners, delivery workers, healthcare staff)?
• This pandemic teaches us to be more considerate and think of others—it's no longer just about “my rights” but about how we, as a global community, can overcome this “darkness” together.

AREZZO FOUNDER 

HUMPHERY CHEN